民生银行业绩超预期是大概率事件

Minsheng bank performance than expected is big probability event

TangYa rhyme: in fact bank bad prediction, because it actually and macro economic ties very close, so in fact may be in between each quarter, analysts will continue to raise or lower performance prediction, 2012 is each quarter will each quarter, one, two, three, four quarter profit growth is gradually go down, the income growth also go down in 2013, the situation should be go up. So in 2012, everyone will think 2012 anticipation will partial careful, because people will think because in 2012, two times to cut interest rates, 2013 face spreads pressure, and in 2013 the bank capital adequacy ratio regulation, quantity expansion has not so fast, but by 2013 might be a bit like 2008 to 2009 years, to quantity premium will be more than expected, because the loan is still in supplier market, the lack of the loan, the bank pricing ability is stronger, the price also does not have the imagination of fast. We think 2013 performance is likely to exceed expectations, before everyone to the minsheng bank performance forecast at 15% to 20%, the bank earnings forecast at 8% to 10% in 2013, I think the people's livelihood bank will exceed the expected, because the people's livelihood bank has ten consecutive quarters than expected, super expected is a big probability event.