民生银行：资产扩张 息差回落好于预期

Minsheng bank: asset expansion carry back better than expected

In 2012, the company performance express display, to achieve the company attributable to shareholders of the parent company net profit of 37.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, ChaoChu we forecast of 30.9%. The main reason is that the fourth quarter the company trade assets continue to accelerate expansion and spreads descent velocity slower than we expected. Is expected in 2012 the company earnings per share 1.32 yuan, ROAA1.38 %, ROAE24 %, and 11 years in flat.

The fourth quarter trade asset scale expansion acceleration, spreads for smooth back. (1) in 2012, the company's total assets scale growth 44%, the size of the loan growth of 15%, is expected to trade asset growth up to 150%. Capital constraint, DaiCunBi assessment factors boost the company's assets structure trade trend to strengthen, is expected to 12 years company interest-earning assets structure was further optimized, loans accounted for than is likely to be down to 45%, the proportion of assets may rise to 35%. By the end of 2012, the company's total liabilities increased by 45%, 17% deposit scale growth, is expected to trade liabilities increase by more than 150%, greatly improve the level of leverage. (2) 12 years throughout the year, the company is expected to net carry back and bp, four quarter year-on-year decline for net spreads sixty bp, link percentile fell 14 bp. The company net carry back speed slower than expected because financing kind of high yield trade asset scale expansion, and in the second half of the company vigorously promote "city commercial cooperative" model, restore the small micro enterprise loans on the speed, so as to prevent the net spreads fast decline. (3) due to the rapid growth of income, we expect the company 12 years of cost income ratio will be better than we previously expected, so this will be set up from 36.5% down to 33%, link the third quarter increased by 1%.

The fourth quarter adverse balance link up 872 million, fraction defective link improve 4 bp, asset quality risk gradually exposed. By the end of 2012, the company defect rate 0.74%, compared to the end of November 13 improve bp, poor balance at the end of November 10.5 billion, compared with an increase of 3 billion. The fourth quarter entity level financing area relatively tight, cause the bad is the third quarter 2, 6.16, 686 million increased. On the whole, the company asset quality is still in the process of gradually exposed, the risk is still in the controllable range. Comprehensive consideration of the performance and risk tradeoff, is expected to 12 years the company credit costs by 0.74%, and the same 11 years.